2025 M&A forecast for the landscape industry

As we move through 2025, the landscape industry continues to offer strong opportunities for mergers and acquisitions (M&A). The year is off to a fast start, with early deal activity reflecting the resilience and adaptability of the sector. Investors and buyers, having spent Q4 of 2024 monitoring the election cycle, are now actively deploying capital in the space. This letter provides an overview of the M&A forecast for landscape, turf care, tree care, irrigation, and lighting companies, highlighting key trends and strategic considerations.

Market Overview

The landscape industry remains stable and poised for continued growth. Despite economic and political fluctuations, demand for landscaping services remains strong across both residential and commercial sectors. Although the industry has seen a rapid pace of acquisitions over the past several years, it remains highly fragmented, with ongoing opportunities for technological advancements, leadership development, and talent acquisition.

Key Trends and Insights Leaders at the Top

2025 is expected to bring several large ($100 million+ in revenue) companies to market for recapitalization. These firms will likely transition to new private equity (PE) partners while exiting their prior investors. The industry will be watching closely to see if these transactions establish new valuation benchmarks based on adjusted EBITDA multiples. Historically, the private equity playbook suggests that larger EBITDA translates to higher multiples. However, recent 2024 case studies challenge this notion, raising the question: What EBITDA range maximizes value? Q1 and Q2 will provide further clarity on this evolving trend.

Geographical Influence

M&A activity is heavily influenced by geography. High-population coastal areas, the South and Southwest with extended landscaping seasons, and urban markets with a dense mix of commercial and residential properties remain attractive. However, we are also seeing increased focus on secondary and tertiary markets. Additionally, concerns persist over the variability of snow and ice events in regions where winter services play a role in revenue generation.

Political & Economic Conditions

The macroeconomic environment is more favorable than in previous years. While discussions around tariffs and DOGE findings are contributing to stock market volatility, the broader economic outlook under the Trump administration suggests declining interest rates, lower taxes, stable employment, and a growing equity market—factors that bolster corporate confidence and M&A activity. From an industry perspective, investors and legal advisors are paying heightened attention to labor compliance and potential H-2B visa policy shifts. The key takeaway: companies must maintain rigorous compliance and avoid overreliance on the visa program. For best-in-class operators, this should already be standard practice.

Residential Services, Tuck-ins, and Bolt-ons

The demand for residential services remains strong, particularly in turf care, irrigation, and tree care—sectors commanding premium valuations. Several new platform investments are entering the market, signaling increased activity. On the commercial side, tuck-in acquisitions continue to drive expansion, with buyers actively targeting smaller specialty companies to enhance their service offerings.

Strategic Considerations

As the industry evolves, owners and operators should consider:

• Prioritizing high-margin, high-value services: Focus on self-performing, recurring revenue streams such as maintenance, repair, enhancement, and technician-driven services.
• Enhancing leadership incentives: Implement management equity pools, phantom stock, and other benefit structures to attract and retain top talent.
• Ensuring compliance: Investors are scrutinizing operational compliance more than ever—companies must have robust processes in place.
• Pursuing strategic growth: Actively seek acquisitions to scale and strengthen market positioning.

Conclusion

The landscape industry is poised for a dynamic year in M&A. By staying attuned to market trends and strategically positioning themselves, owners and investors can capitalize on emerging opportunities and drive meaningful growth.

Thank you for your continued support and commitment to the industry.

Sincerely,
Jeffrey Harkness