ELECTION 2008: The Green Vote

During the past nine months, America has witnessed an unprecedented election year unfold. For the first time in more than a decade, both the Republicans and the Democrats had a number of major contenders toss their names in the ring for their party’s presidential nomination. In recent weeks, we’ve seen leading media pundits compare and argue about the candidate’s merits. But now, the race has been whittled down to two major players – Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Illinois) – and as their campaigns hustle to the homestretch, many of us are still left wondering exactly which candidate is right for our industry.

Sure, we’ve heard all about McCain’s and Obama’s plans for the war in Iraq, whether or not they will privatize social security and how the candidates think the economy should be fixed. Yet with Election Day at our doorstep, it’s not very clear how either man’s domestic and international strategies would affect the green industry.

To unravel these mysteries, Lawn & Landscape turned to the experts and discovered answers by examining three major policy areas of the McCain and Obama campaigns.

Issue No. 1 – The Economy
The policy area where Obama and McCain share the biggest opinion difference is how each plans to handle a struggling economy. Since the housing and real estate slump began, many lawn and landscaping professionals have battled against the harsh currents of the downturn. But with housing still in a rut and financial turmoil on Wall Street, most are expecting to continue their uphill battles through 2009.

As small business owners, the best place for green industry professionals to begin considering their vote is by taking a closer look at the candidates’ economic plans, according to Jeffrey Ladewig, a professor of American politics and political economy at the University of Connecticut.

“A gut instinct would be to follow a candidate who’s not necessarily going to increase regulations that will affect the small business owner,” agrees Brian Horgan, a turf management specialist and assistant professor at the University of Minnesota. “That will mainly be in terms of tax policy.  I would urge small business owners to look at their bottom line and how one candidate will affect that differently than another.”

Regarding tax policy, small business owners have more in common with the average American family than they do with big business, Ladewig says.

“Both candidates plan to offer incentives to businesses,” Ladewig says. “But McCain’s [incentives] are more for big business and Obama’s are more for small business. Larger corporations will probably be affected less by either of these candidates’ policies, because they’re generally better able to weather the storm.”

According to the Republican campaign, McCain’s goal is to make taxes simpler and easier to understand, which could vastly cut the amount of paperwork green industry professionals find themselves digging into this tax season.

According to the Democratic campaign, Obama’s plan tries to lower costs by offering health care tax credits, eliminating capital gains taxes and reducing the burden of double taxation that small business owners carry under payroll taxes.

“What we really need on a lot of these issues is aggressive change,” Ladewig says. “Obama’s plan calls for more change while McCain’s wants to make the current [government programs and policies] more efficient.”

As a business owner operating a fleet of mowers, trucks and snow plows, it can be tempting to ask which candidate will make fuel costs more affordable. Unfortunately, gas prices are one area of the economy where a president has very little control, according to Ladewig.

“Neither candidate has a really good plan to make gas cheaper,” Ladewig says. “But a president can’t really change [the price] very much. These prices are controlled by market forces beyond the control of a president.  If the president gives a gas tax holiday, [gas] will get a few cents cheaper, but it won’t last.”

Issue No. 2 – The Environment
Reviewing the McCain and Obama Web sites, it becomes obvious why some have such a tough time determining which candidate’s environmental policy is better for lawn and landscaping businesses. 

McCain’s brief environmental policy is filed on his Web site under the title of “Climate Change,” and mostly focuses on ways to decrease greenhouse gas emissions. The Obama site, by contrast, has an eight page environmental plan that touches on everything from global warming to water conservation issues. But as Horgan points out, Obama is the only candidate whose plan mentions a subject directly related to the green industry – Nevada’s Cash-for-Grass program.

“Nevada’s Cash-for-Grass program, in which people are paid to remove grass and put in desert landscaping, is an excellent model of conservation, and Obama intends to help local communities develop similar projects that work for them,” Obama’s environmental plan states.

Programs like Nevada’s Cash-for-Grass plan claim to improve water quality and usage by paying property owners to convert their yards to xeriscapes, promoting water efficiency through landscaping with plants native to the area.
“Obama seems to promote the benefit of grass for cash programs,” Horgan says. “But there is a lot of controversy about how much water is saved and how it affects the heating and cooling of the home – less grass, more air conditioning – and how it really affects the water running off the property.”

Still, aside from one sentence in the Obama plan, neither candidate is saying much directly related to the green industry. In broad terms, Horgan says Obama seems to lean more toward increasing environmental regulations while McCain is more for less government and probably fewer regulations.
 
Surprisingly though, the presidential election might not be the most significant race affecting green industry environmental policy. According to Horgan, most of the regulations that will change the way the industry does business will come from below the executive level.

“Pay more attention to the congressional district and state representatives, because that’s where the small business owner is going to make his voice heard and be able to make a difference [on environmental issues],” Horgan says. “Where landscape professionals can be affected is on a state by state level rather than by federal mandate.”

Issue No. 3 – Immigration
In an industry that relies on recurring seasonal positions, the immigration policies of McCain and Obama might have a big impact. Historically, it’s been difficult to retain American workers for the kinds of seasonal positions the lawn and landscape industry offers. This personnel shortage has lead to an increasing dependence on temporary foreign workers with H-2B visas.

The H-2B visa is the only visa program that allows nonagricultural employers to import foreign workers to fill their employment needs. Since its creation in the early ’90s, the H-2B program has limited the number of visas available to 66,000. Special exemptions passed by Congress in 2005 and 2006 allowed employers to bring back past temporary employees without counting against the visa cap.  But to the dismay of many employers, that exemption has not been extended, causing the elimination of at least 100,000 workers from the labor force.

The big immigration question for many in the industry is how Obama or McCain will improve this situation.

“Both candidates want to crack down on illegal [immigrants] and employers who hire illegals,” Ladewig says. “So expanding the H-2B will be difficult.”

Immigration is a touchy subject for each candidate because of their political base, according to Ladewig. McCain has angered many Republicans by being more moderate on immigration issues while Obama has had to tread carefully not to anger blue-collar workers by advocating for foreign workers. Because of these pressures, both candidates are likely to approach the subject fairly cautiously.
“The H-2B cap really could be changed by executive order [from the president],” Ladewig says. “If that happens, Obama is more likely to make it fairer. Obama is slightly more amenable to temporary workers.”

Election Day: Nov. 4, 2008
Both Ladewig and Horgan urge green industry professionals to consider the future before punching their ballot, and to think more about policies and issues rather than about one particular candidate.

“There is a famous quote that says, ‘You get the democracy you deserve’,” Ladewig offers. “Put thought into your vote, ignore the stereotypes and hype, and no matter who you vote for, you’ll have helped improve our democracy greatly.”