 Jim Huston |
“We have had some luck, being that we have had work, but only one job at a time. We’re down to one crew in landscape and one in maintenance. It is really slow and we see the entire economy crashing around us. There is literally no work in Sacramento. Other friends of mine tell me that they cannot buy a job. How is the rest of the country doing?”
To get a true perspective on this contractor’s concerns, I’d also ask, “Where is the country heading?” The first question is fairly easy to answer. It’s the second one that’s a crap shoot. There are more mixed signals in today’s economy than in BP CEO Tony Hayward’s testimony before the U.S. Congress.
Here’s a sampling from the Wall Street Journal: capital-equipment orders were up 2.1 percent in May, and 18.4 percent above its year-earlier level. Engine-maker Cummins, Inc., plans to boost capital spending to $400 million this year, up nearly 30 percent from 2009. The G-20 meeting in Toronto saw little consensus from the world’s economic leaders – the U.S. fears moving too fast and plunging into another global recession, and European nations, have cautioned that moving too slowly could produce unsustainable debt loads, higher interest rates and even defaults.
So where are we, and where are we headed? In my consultations with more than 60 contractors in the last five months, the word “recovery” is not what comes to mind. Rather, the word “stagnation” seems to be the phrase of the day. Yes, quantifiably, sales are up a little and people are feeling a bit less anxious. But less than one percent of the contractors that I’ve visited are planning on “robust” growth (more than 10 percent) from 2009. Still fewer feel overly optimistic about the future or are planning for robust growth any time soon. It’s less anxiety, not more optimism, as contractors seem to be more comfortable with the “new normal” in which we seem to be mired.
While the current markets are characterized by flatness, future ones appear extremely timid. In many market sectors there is some economic growth, but it has not trickled down to the green industry with any significant momentum. If the current economic malaise continues, it will take over a decade to recapture the jobs that have been lost in the last thirty months. That is simply unacceptable. Just as a bicyclist needs some momentum to keep balanced and upright, so too does the economy need a minimal amount of inertia to keep it moving forward and to keep it from collapsing. Either we grow or we crash. The current situation is not an option.
The question seems to be, will we recover? Will we get back to a place where the future optimism that once characterized this country for generations is warranted? Will we have a return of the robust optimism that has always been at the core of the American Dream?
Yes, it will return. However, it won’t be soon, and be prepared for some very rough times in the future. The uncertainty that plagues our economy today makes it more likely that we will experience a double-dip recession than that we will see a robust recovery any time soon. Do not allow the current increase in economic activity to lull you into thinking that the recovery is under way. If this is an economic “recovery,” it is the most anemic one that we have seen in recent history.
So, what do you do about it? Be proactive at all levels. Remember the basics in your business: set measurable and time-based goals, know your numbers, maximize your production, market like crazy – and then do it all over again. Since the current economic situation is a systemic one, past solutions probably won’t work. Generals, they say, always fight the last war. They use outdated strategies and technologies that brought success in past battles to future ones. It doesn’t work.
My contractor friend in Sacramento and contractors all over the U.S. are experiencing the same thing – a lackluster economy. Entrepreneurs by definition take things into their own hands and make things happen. It’s time that we do that at a governmental level as well and get back to the optimism for our future that has made us great and made us who we are as Americans.
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