Nursery Market Report: March 2000, Sizing Up Spring Supply

In the busy spring season, many nursery growers dream of transforming their operations into giant plant factories capable of manufacturing product at breakneck speed. In reality, they cannot always supply enough product to meet demand from landscape contractors and to compensate for a national shortage of ornamental trees and shrubs.

"Unlike manufacturing, we can’t just crank up production to produce more plants," said Keith Manbeck, nursery manager for Manbeck Nurseries in New Knoxville, Ohio. "Producing the plant material is a long process, and believe me, if I could, I would snap my fingers and double my inventory at the present."

With trendy new material featured in magazines, supply depletes fast, added Calvin Bordine, perennial manager for Bordine’s Nursery in Clarkston, Mich. "You may fall out of the material very quick, and you can’t make any more," Bordine explained.

Typically, growers feel the production crunch every spring, but this year the situation is worse thanks to widespread drought, which stunted the growth of some ornamentals.

"Weather is always a factor, but the impact is localized," said Jeff McIvor, Oregon Association of Nurserymen’s director of marketing and communication. "The biggest factor is that the economy is strong. The market has been this way for several years. Plus, people tend to want bigger trees and shrubs – ‘ready-made landscaping,’ which has made supplies tight."

HERE TODAY, GONE TOMORROW. Contractors may encounter shortages of low-maintenance product, including day lilies and hosta, and new or unusual specialty items because demand for them is rapidly rising, growers report.

In particular, there is increased demand for more cutting-edge types of hosta, explained Mary Beth Vanous, business manager for hosta specialist Q&Z Nursery in Rochelle, Ill. "Those who come to us are willing to go out of their way for the material," she said. Because the nursery maintains a constant inventory of nearly 150 varieties all year, Vanous said she doesn’t expect to encounter any shortages.

Some growers are still recovering from last year’s drought, which meant fewer trees to sell. For the next several years, Manbeck forecasted, shade trees and ornamentals will be in short supply, but large and small evergreens will be plentiful.

Known for its rhododendron, Teufel Nursery in Portland, Ore., is bracing itself "to supply more than ever," said Rick Christensen, landscape division manager. Like Vanous, he is confident that the operation is ready for the spring rush. "We can almost always substitute a different type of rhododendron if we ever run out of the particular one a customer wants," Christensen said.

RISKY BUSINESS. Spring plant availability is often based on the decisions of individual growers, which are made several years before harvest. In some cases, growers and landscape contractors face some of the same challenges with weather and labor.

Inclement spring weather, for example, may keep contractors from working outside, Bordine said. "In late spring," he explained, "if they’re behind on jobs, we’re dealing with the same beast."

The limited labor pool, Bordine added, also contributes to the spring crunch. Relying on people to show up can be risky, so his operation has turned more to mechanization to increase productivity.

McIvor agreed that the tight labor market worsens growers’ supply problems, but the industry is focused on finding a solution with legislation that would ensure a sufficient, legal work force during peak times.

Besides weather and labor, growers face risks predicting market demand far in advance of any given spring season. Generally, planning begins one to three years before harvest. Still, "planning for a given season is an ongoing process that evolves throughout the year," said Joe Boarini, owner of Grande Greenhouse in Indianapolis, Ind. "Many of our decisions for next season are made during the busiest times of the current season."

GET TO KNOW SUPPLIERS. According to some suppliers, there is a need to educate contractors about the difficulties of production. Many encourage contractors to tour nurseries and inspect inventory at other operations. "You can see if you’ve experienced a regional shortage," Bordine said, "or if you had a problem with a particular grower."

Many growers advise contractors to order far in advance, especially if they want new or rare plants. Some producers are already booking orders for spring of 2001. "There is no such thing as an order placed too early," Boarini said, "but there is definitely such a thing as an order placed too late."

One of the biggest challenges facing growers, Manbeck added, is that contractors don’t always comprehend that producing crops takes time. While a perennial can take six to nine months to produce, a spirea is about a 15-month product from cutting to sale, he explained. "On the other side of the coin is caliper plant material," Manbeck said. "If you start at propagation, making a 2-inch plant can take six to eight years. I’m not sure that contractors appreciate this. Considering the price of plant material in the last five years and also that a liner from the West Coast costs $7 to $12, figuring out why large plants are in short supply isn’t hard."

Learning about the complex supply/demand process, some growers stress, is essential to contractors forming successful partnerships with their suppliers. "Communication is key to any strong relationship," Boarini said.