TURFSEED: Ex-Seeding Expectations?

Susan Samudio breathed a sigh of relief in recent weeks. In an April 2005 article on Lawn & Landscape Online, Samudio, plant breeder with Jacklin Seed/Simplot, Post Falls Idaho, predicted significantly lower seed yields if the Pacific Northwest didn’t receive the necessary rainfall for a normal harvest. At the time, Samudio noted, “estimates are that an additional 10 to 12 inches of water is needed before harvest for turfgrasses to reach their full seed yield potential” – a great deal of rain in a short amount of time.

Thankfully, “we got our rain,” Samudio told Lawn & Landscape in July as the turf seed harvest progressed through Washington, Oregon and Idaho. “It looks like proprietary bluegrasses will be off about 12 to 15 percent, but everything else looks OK. I’m kind of amazed that we’re getting an average crop for the most part. In February and March, it looked like we would be really short, but the plants did tremendously well making up for stress in the fall.”

In the same way contractors depend on cooperative weather for their clients’ lawns and landscapes to grow, seed breeders must have adequate rain – though not too much – to ensure a fruitful harvest. This year, breeders expect to be able to provide adequate amounts of seed for the expected usage, though working with suppliers early is recommended.

HOPEFUL HARVEST. Overall, turf seed producers across the country are reporting average to slightly below average yields for a range of seed species. While fine fescues and perennial ryegrasses are expected to have good to above-average supplies this year as a result of strong carryovers from last season, uncooperative weather affected many crops around the nation. Here’s what breeders are expecting for the 2005 harvest, keeping in mind that many suppliers can speak only to their own companies’ supplies: 

BLUEGRASSES. According to breeders, both proprietary and common bluegrasses are expected to be average to below average in supply, with prices rising slightly. With Samudio noting that proprietary bluegrass harvests could be down 12 to 15 percent, an average carryover of seed from last season will only slightly help boost the supply.

“There are millions of pounds of bluegrass produced each year and pretty much all of it is sold,” Samudio says. “A 20-million pound carryover isn’t that much – in normal processing, it could be used up in three to four months. With an additional 15 percent loss, the supply may end up being short for a month or two. It’s a little loss, but most people will get what they need.”

Russ Nicholson agrees. “The Kentucky-31 (common bluegrass) harvest in Missouri will be relatively short compared to a normal year,” says the national sales manager for Pennington Seed, Madison, Ga. “All of this is really about the weather. Last year, we had all that rain from the hurricanes that came through and this year is not that much different. A normal to larger crop was needed to ensure an adequate supply, though the crop in this portion of the country could be 25 to 30 percent lower than expected.”

Moreover, Nicholson anticipates a shortage in turf-type tall fescue and expects that some contractors may choose bluegrass over this species for new seedings in order to sidestep short supplies. “Because of higher pricing on tall fescue, there may be a larger consumption of Kentucky bluegrass, and once that’s consumed those prices could go up as well,” he explains.

TALL FESCUE. According to Nicholson, Oregon produces about 210 million pounds of turf-type tall fescue annually and about 100 million pounds of Kentucky-31. Ordinarily, a carryover of 45 million pounds is average between the two species. But, “This year, there will be less than 10 million in carryover,” he warns. “The production on turf-type tall fescue is also down and that’s going to create a very tight market, so prices for the species will increase significantly.” Nicholson predicts a 20- to 25-cent-per-pound increase for turf-type tall fescue, with prices exceeding the typical 80 cents to $1-per-pound.

RYEGRASSES. While supplies of some seed species are down this year, no one’s worrying about perennial ryegrass. The favorite in seed blends for its client-satisfying quick growth, breeders note a strong supply and lower prices for the coming season. “Perennial ryegrass looks to have an excellent current supply and the expected harvest is good,” notes Evelyn Dennis, seed and mulch merchant for LESCO, Cleveland, Ohio.

Samudio says Jacklin Seed still has four of 11 perennial ryegrass varieties in stock and Nicholson also notes an overstock of the species for 2005. “As a result of oversupply, the prices on perennial rye have come down by as much as 5 to 8 cents per pound compared to last year,” he says. This is in contrast to below average supplies of annual ryegrass, which could see prices 10 to 12 cents per pound higher than last year.

So, can contractors who usually use annual ryegrass switch to perennial rye varieties to offset costs? Not exactly, Nicholson notes. “Perennial ryegrass is an upgrade from annual rye – the varieties have different growth characteristics, such as a finer leaf blade and darker green color on the perennial varieties,” he says. “Generally, perennial ryegrasses sell in the mid-80- to mid-90-cent range, while annual rye sells in the mid-40- and mid-50-cent range. So, if contractors choose to upgrade to perennial ryegrass because the supply is better and prices are down, they may still end up paying a bit more than for annual ryegrass even though those prices are down.”

BERMUDAGRASS. While prices for some turf seed species may be up a few cents here or a quarter there, contractors who seed with Bermudagrass better hold onto their wallets. According to Nicholson, prices for Bermudagrass seed could be up 40 percent from last year.

“There’s been great usage of this species over the last couple of years and the supply around the world is largely consumed,” Nicholson says. “We’ve got a tight supply prior to harvest and we expect the price at the grower’s level to be about 40 percent higher than last year. Consumers can expect at least that much of an increase, so if they paid $3 per pound last year, they’ll probably be looking more at $4 per pound this year.”

Marc Cool, vice president of marketing and sales, Barenbrug USA, Tangent, Ore., suggests the weakened supply could be weather-related. “Warm-season species like Bermuda, Bahia, carpetgrass and St. Augustine are harvested one to two months later than the cool-season species in the Pacific Northwest, but the early hurricanes in the Southeast may delay harvest in this area by a little bit,” he says.

SIDESTEPPING SHORTAGES. With some expected shortfalls, should contractors be worried that they won’t be able to find the seed they need, when they need it? According to seed growers, contractors that anticipate their needs and work closely with suppliers should be OK.

“For the most part, with some exceptions, the seed harvest and total supplies are good for the expected usage,” Cool says. “To ensure you are not caught in a short or long situation, it’s important to remain in constant contact with your seed dealer regarding the supply/demand balance, and base all sales on the current supply and price conditions.”

Cool says the relative demand for each species of turf seed is pretty stable from year to year, though fluctuations in weather can impact supplies and, therefore, prices. While most contractors use seed blends to create the best turf for their clients – and blending is preferred to using a single species of seed – Cool suggests contractors should stick to the blends they trust, rather than alter blends to include turf seed species or varieties that are in greater supply and cost less. Using species that are in greater demand may end up costing a little more, but customers will be happier if there is consistency in their seed applications.

“Contractors are wise to use the combination of species that works best for his conditions and needs,” Cool explains. “His competitors will face the same supply and price issues, so all players are on a level field. Customers and users of turf seed will want the varieties, species and mixes that work best for their conditions, so it’s unwise to change formulations and offer a potentially inferior product.”

Nicholson agrees. “There are different levels of quality among each species of turf seed – everything from what we would call a ‘contractor mix’ to sod-grade,” he explains. “You might be able to tweak a blend to a small percentage, but ultimately you want to make sure you’re providing a quality product to your customers so they’re satisfied.”

For the most part, contractors’ best bet to ensure their seed supplies will be available when they need them means anticipating needs and ordering early. “If contractors don’t know what they need or how much seed they want, that’s something they really need to start researching,” Samudio says. “That usually ends up being more of a problem at the tail end of the season when they haven’t anticipated their needs for March or April and supplies start dwindling.”

Granted, it can be difficult to work out just how many pounds of turf seed a company will go through in a given season. Still, Nicholson says even coming up with a ballpark figure can give contractors something to discuss with their suppliers early on. “If you know you’re going to need 1,000 pounds of Bermudagrass to put down in 2006, work with your supplier today so they can have that supply in the spring,” he says. “If the Bermuda stock starts going down, you’ll already have that purchase order in place with seed set aside with your name on it.”